Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.954840 3.547923 4.211041 5.004717 5.925977 6.958702 8.200935
2025-04-20 2.161418 2.972444 3.986852 5.335557 7.066622 9.197384 11.999863
2025-04-27 1.608230 2.491334 3.707973 5.474501 7.935449 11.198263 15.797833
2025-05-04 1.267529 2.180066 3.546803 5.684442 8.870646 13.356414 20.037726
2025-05-11 0.982700 1.864439 3.291050 5.677642 9.454812 15.058369 23.808572
2025-05-18 0.742518 1.550585 2.958961 5.469705 9.670822 16.208605 26.862133
2025-05-25 0.556266 1.277045 2.627585 5.185958 9.696497 17.033479 29.464501
2025-06-01 0.444297 1.112690 2.449905 5.123706 10.058729 18.399502 33.010543
2025-06-08 0.357309 0.974288 2.289201 5.056848 10.388944 19.725833 36.589604
2025-06-15 0.319183 0.934342 2.315490 5.346321 11.389970 22.274988 42.414340
2025-06-22 0.267568 0.846443 2.221370 5.375704 11.898096 23.995936 46.945544
2025-06-29 0.223063 0.762823 2.118402 5.366568 12.322899 25.594358 51.375860
2025-07-06 0.183771 0.682556 2.010515 5.338571 12.725908 27.227039 56.077688
2025-07-13 0.172061 0.680722 2.096027 5.763842 14.123754 30.880513 64.803687
2025-07-20 0.150622 0.641102 2.076455 5.940039 15.011622 33.623062 72.033890
2025-07-27 0.134340 0.612912 2.081346 6.175596 16.054934 36.758898 80.242357
2025-08-03 0.112754 0.557261 1.996639 6.171893 16.557860 38.841075 86.550337
2025-08-10 0.089159 0.483070 1.838827 5.949442 16.524636 39.806717 90.711879
2025-08-17 0.068471 0.409772 1.663245 5.644433 16.250859 40.230015 93.796948
2025-08-24 0.056388 0.368089 1.578533 5.577548 16.548567 41.906583 99.569466
2025-08-31 0.046351 0.330505 1.497366 5.505595 16.822510 43.548899 105.377772
2025-09-07 0.043267 0.327726 1.540708 5.817308 18.124252 47.603910 116.576541
2025-09-14 0.036944 0.303254 1.496552 5.848945 18.686575 50.003787 124.343683